By Joel Funk
Wyoming Tribune Eagle
Via Wyoming News Exchange
CHEYENNE – It appears there will be a primary battle among Democrats in the race to be Wyoming’s next governor.
Kenneth Casner of Carbon County filed his Democratic candidacy Thursday with the Secretary of State’s Office. He’s the first Democrat to do so, though he has not made an announcement to the media.
Casner didn’t return a request for comment Friday.
There are now two Democrats seeking the nomination to advance to the Nov. 6 general election. Former state lawmaker Mary Throne announced in August she would run as a Democrat in the governor’s race. It appeared at the time she could coast unopposed to the nomination, as she had the support of prominent Wyoming Democrats that many speculated might make a run, including state Senate Minority Leader Chris Rothfuss, D-Laramie, and 2016 congressional candidate Ryan Greene of Rock Springs.
Throne said she plans to file her candidacy May 29 while hosting a rally at the Wyoming Supreme Court.
It’s not Casner’s first run for office. In a letter published by the Casper Star-Tribune in 2016, Casner indicated he’d been involved in politics in both major parties and as an independent in Wyoming since 2002. His last bid for office was in 2016 as a candidate for House District 47, which covers portions of Albany, Carbon and Sweetwater counties.
As the sole candidate in the primary, Casner advanced to the general election, where incumbent Rep. Jerry Paxton, R-Encampment, rolled over him, 3,309-612. Casner’s last run as an independent was in 2010 in Senate District 11, where he was bested by Democrat Jim Elliott by more than 1,200 votes and now-Sen. Larry Hicks, R-Baggs, who came out on top in the race with 2,825 votes.
A good thing for the party
Primary showdowns are good for the party, said Joe Barbuto, Wyoming Democratic Party chairman.
“They’re signals that there’s energy and optimism among Democrats in Wyoming, which is fantastic,” Barbuto said. “And I think it helps candidates become better prepared for the general.”
Matt Herdman, Throne’s campaign manager, echoed Barbuto’s comment and said they’re looking forward to the primary race.
“I’m happy that voters will have a choice in the primary, and I am also confident that the voters will nominate Mary Throne on Aug. 21,” Herdman said.
Barbuto said he’s been impressed with Throne’s campaign so far and expects a challenger will have a long road ahead.
“She’s been out talking to voters, knocking on doors, raising dollars and talking issues,” he said. “I think she certainly has a lot of name recognition and a head start in the primary, so anyone else will have to work pretty hard to catch up at this point.”
Does a Democrat stand a chance?
Both Republicans and Democrats appear energized as they look to replace Republican Gov. Matt Mead, whose second and final term expires this year. There are six declared Republican candidates in what is shaping up to be a heated primary.
During the Wyoming Republican Party Convention in Laramie last month, U.S. Sen. Mike Enzi, R-Wyo., told attendees it’s a good thing to have a heated primary. But the party needs to rally behind whoever emerges as the winner to ensure a Republican comes away the winner in November, he said.
“It would be exciting to have two Republican governors in a row,” Enzi said. “Do you know how many years it’s been since we’ve done that? We don’t want to shoot ourselves in the foot in the campaign and lose out.”
It’s been 50 years since Wyoming elected two consecutive Republican governors, when Stanley Hathaway followed Clifford Hansen. Democrats had two consecutive governors in Edgar Herschler and Mike Sullivan, with terms stretching from 1975-1995. Dave Freudenthal was the last Democrat to serve as governor; he served two terms preceding Mead’s tenure.
Herdman said any statewide Democratic campaign in Wyoming is asked whether it’s possible to win in an overwhelmingly red state. In recent weeks, he said he’s been feeling like that could be a reality in the governor’s race.
“I feel like over the past three weeks, we’ve seen some major clues that the answer to that is a definitive yes,” Herdman said.
The combination of what could be a contentious Republican primary, reactions from conservative voters who meet with Throne and institutions taking her campaign seriously seem like clues that the blue party has the energy, Herdman said.
But whatever the level of enthusiasm on the blue side of the ticket, Jim King, a University of Wyoming political science professor, said it’s a long shot that a Democrat will take the governor’s mansion.
“Given the most recent trends, it is unlikely the winner of the Republican primary will lose the general election,” King wrote in an email. “(Twenty-four) years of Republican dominance, with Freudenthal being the only Democrat to win a statewide election, point to a likely advantage in the general election that the Democratic nominee will find difficult to overcome.”